The Allure of the Few

Barry Brook reviews a new book on "Allee effects"--the processes by which small population sizes beget an accelerating decline in abundance and so hasten extinction

An aggregative response of the tropical Australian magpie goose (Anseranas semipalmata) to seasonal floodplains.

We describe the spatial aggregation of the magpie goose (Anseranas semipalmata) in relation to the dynamics of the ephemeral floodplains of northern Australia. Past broad-scale studies have linked geese to floodplains dominated by the sedge, Eleocharis dulcis, but the type of response has not been determined, nor the impact of predation on food plants. Moreover, departure thresholds are not known. We develop hypotheses on aggregation and departure and confront these with field data. Thus, from 2005–2007 we established two sites on the floodplains of Kakadu National Park (three 1-ha plots per site, six plots in total) and used for monthly, dry season bird counts. An airboat was used to collect data from each of the six plots, including sedge tubers and measures of water level and soil viscosity. Further, we built exclosures (three per site, six in total) to test the impact of herbivory on E. dulcis. Generalized linear models and information theory were used to test the strength of supporting evidence for alternate hypotheses. Geese showed a clear aggregative response to E. dulcis tubers, were forced to depart following floodplain drying and had a marked impact on E. dulcis tuber density. Despite this, there was no evidence of a negative-feedback mechanism between plant–herbivore populations, suggesting that the system is driven by extrinsic parameters (here rainfall)

Fire impacts recruitment more than survival of small-mammals in a tropical savanna

The frequency and spatial patterning of fire for optimal biodiversity conservation is often poorly understood by managers, in part due to a lack of understanding of the mechanisms responsible for altering population dynamics of individual species. We investigated changes in the vital rates (survival and recruitment) of four small mammal species (three marsupials and one rodent) in a tropical savanna under four different experimental fire treatments applied at a landscape scale. Apparent survival declined in all fire treatments for only one of four small mammal species (northern brown bandicoot Isoodon macrourus). Recruitment was reduced in three of four species in multiple fire treatments. The suppression of recruitment in the northern brown bandicoot and the brushtail possum Trichosurus vulpecula populations was greatest immediately after the initial fire treatment was applied, compared to remaining treatment applications in successive years, possibly due to an elevated fire intensity as a result of higher initial fuel loads. The results suggest that higher intensity fire impacted recruitment more than survival for small mammals at this site. To assist fire managers to conserve small mammal populations in tropical savannas, we recommend fire regimes that optimise habitat resources for recruitment. This may be achieved by a reduction in fire frequency and managing fuel loads to prevent an increase in fire intensity

Predicting the Timing and Magnitude of Tropical Mosquito Population Peaks for Maximizing Control Efficiency

The transmission of mosquito-borne diseases is strongly linked to the abundance of the host vector. Identifying the environmental and biological precursors which herald the onset of peaks in mosquito abundance would give health and land-use managers the capacity to predict the timing and distribution of the most efficient and cost-effective mosquito control. We analysed a 15-year time series of monthly abundance of Aedes vigilax, a tropical mosquito species from northern Australia, to determine periodicity and drivers of population peaks (high-density outbreaks). Two sets of density-dependent models were used to examine the correlation between mosquito abundance peaks and the environmental drivers of peaks or troughs (low-density periods). The seasonal peaks of reproduction (r) and abundance () occur at the beginning of September and early November, respectively. The combination of low mosquito abundance and a low frequency of a high tide exceeding 7 m in the previous low-abundance (trough) period were the most parsimonious predictors of a peak's magnitude, with this model explaining over 50% of the deviance in . Model weights, estimated using AICc, were also relatively high for those including monthly maximum tide height, monthly accumulated tide height or total rainfall per month in the trough, with high values in the trough correlating negatively with the onset of a high-abundance peak. These findings illustrate that basic environmental monitoring data can be coupled with relatively simple density feedback models to predict the timing and magnitude of mosquito abundance peaks. Decision-makers can use these methods to determine optimal levels of control (i.e., least-cost measures yielding the largest decline in mosquito abundance) and so reduce the risk of disease outbreaks in human populations

Extinction: A synthesis of disciplines for theoretical and practical advances

Extinction is a new open-access journal focused on the patterns and processes underlying the loss of biodiversity. It aims to inform conservation efforts, with a broad spatial and temporal scope. Extinction biology – the scientific study of species loss – has a long history and has recently become a more interdisciplinary and integrated field. This journal offers a unique, synthetic forum in which to present cutting-edge research and discuss its implications. This includes ecological, molecular, paleontological, and social perspectives, based on empirical data, theory, and modelling, to understand extinction processes. By tackling the big challenges, the research published in Extinction will be valuable for researchers and practitioners concerned with extinction and its role in shaping the history and future of life on Earth

Potential for Worldwide Displacement of Fossil-Fuel Electricity by Nuclear Energy in Three Decades Based on Extrapolation of Regional Deployment Data

Abstract There is an ongoing debate about the deployment rates and composition of alternative energy plans that could feasibly displace fossil fuels globally by mid-century, as required to avoid the more extreme impacts of climate change. Here we demonstrate the potential for a large-scale expansion of global nuclear power to replace fossil-fuel electricity production, based on empirical data from the Swedish and French light water reactor programs of the 1960s to 1990s. Analysis of these historical deployments show that if the world built nuclear power at no more than the per capita rate of these exemplar nations during their national expansion, then coal-and gas-fired electricity could be replaced worldwide in less than a decade. Under more conservative projections that take into account probable constraints and uncertainties such as differing relative economic output across regions, current and past unit construction time and costs, future electricity demand growth forecasts and the retiring of existing aging nuclear plants, our modelling estimates that the global share of fossil-fuelderived electricity could be replaced within 25-34 years. This would allow the world to meet the most stringent greenhouse-gas mitigation targets